DAU Projection Tool
Enter your D1, D30, and D180 retention rates and Growth Prophet projects Daily Active Users over 90, 180, or 365 days, calculating LT30 and LT180 so you can compare acquisition and retention scenarios.
Daily Active Users is the metric investors and operators watch, but it's notoriously hard to forecast because it depends on two moving parts at once: how many new users you add each day, and how many of your past users stick around. A DAU projection separates those forces so you can see the trajectory your current retention curve actually implies, instead of guessing from a single month's numbers.
Growth Prophet models retention as a piecewise power law anchored on three real checkpoints — D1, D30, and D180 — which captures the sharp early drop-off and the long, flattening tail that simpler models miss. From that curve it sums daily retention into LT30 and LT180, the average number of active days each acquired user contributes. Those figures let you sanity-check acquisition spend against realistic lifetime engagement before you commit budget.
How to forecast DAU
- Enter your retention inputs — Provide D1, D30, and D180 retention rates plus your daily new-user volume.
- Fit the retention curve — Growth Prophet fits a piecewise power-law curve to those points and projects active users day by day.
- Compare scenarios — Read your DAU forecast and LT30/LT180 over 90, 180, or 365 days and compare acquisition and retention scenarios.
Frequently asked questions
How does the DAU projection work?
You enter three retention checkpoints — D1, D30, and D180 — plus your daily new-user volume. Growth Prophet fits a piecewise power-law retention curve to those points and projects how many existing and new users stay active each day, summing them into a Daily Active Users forecast over 90, 180, or 365 days.
What are D1, D30, and D180 retention?
D1, D30, and D180 are the percentage of users still active 1, 30, and 180 days after they first signed up. They define the shape of your retention curve: D1 captures early drop-off, D30 captures the medium-term plateau, and D180 anchors the long-term tail. Valid inputs satisfy 0 < D180 ≤ D30 ≤ D1 ≤ 100.
What are LT30 and LT180?
LT30 and LT180 are lifetime-value retention multipliers — the sum of daily retention rates over the first 30 and 180 days. They tell you, on average, how many active days each acquired user contributes in that window, which is useful for comparing payback against acquisition cost.
Is the DAU projection tool free?
Yes. DAU projection is free and unlimited on every plan, including Free, with no credit card required. Growth Prophet is free to start — no credit card required. Paid plans are Pro at $19/month and Max at $29/month, both with a 14-day money-back guarantee.